Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Group C Outlook


Poland
Poland has two games left, against Hungary and Vietnam. Poland will win both of those games, but the real question for them is where they end up finishing. If Nigeria can beat Germany, Nigeria will be tied with Poland in points. The group then goes to the differential, which is where Poland could get into trouble. Nigeria currently hold a 7 goal advantage over Poland, each team with 2 remaining games left. The advantage Poland holds here is that their games are against Vietnam and Portugal, while Nigeria plays Germany and Portugal. Let’s say both teams get similar results against Portugal. We’ve already established that Nigeria would have to beat Germany to even be in this scenario, so their goal differential will increase by at least 1, putting them +8 on Poland. Poland will have to beat Vietnam by 9 in this case. There’s still some work left to do for Poland to ensure 1st place in the pool.

Germany
Germany’s outlook is simple. Win and they’re in, lose and they’re out. With a winnable game against Hungary, Germany’s concern lies with Nigeria. All they have to do is beat them (and Hungary) to go through in 2nd. 1st place is out of the question with the loss to Poland. But what if they tie Nigeria? This is a scenario that Germany does not want to face (next to losing, obviously). A tie means Nigeria goes through based on a better record. A win here is critical for Germany.
Nigeria
They’re in an interesting position. Their scenario is the same as Germany’s, win and they’re in. Nigeria advantage is if the game goes to a tie (definitely possible) or if Poland slips up. The 13-0 drubbing of Vietnam pushed their goal differential to tops in the group.

This group may seem pretty straightforward, but there’s still some interesting things that could happen. Hungary should have tied Nigeria, they could potentially do the same thing to Germany even if Germany beats Nigeria. That would make things very interesting. Portugal looks much better than they did the first couple games, and they could put up a good fight against Poland AND Nigeria. Keep a close eye on the group.


Group D later...

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you need to relook at these scenerios. Germany v. Nigeria - if a tie Nigeria goes through based on a better record (Germany lost to Poland where Nigeria tied Poland) assuming both win out the rest of their games.

Poland plays Hungary as you stated in the first sentence and not Portugal which you stated later on.

Anonymous said...

I think your last comment under Nigeria heading should be that "Hungary" looks much better - not Portugal.

Anonymous said...

Hungary is going to be Hungry for a win this weekend.

Enigma

Clock Cleaner said...

Fixed the scenario...easy to get scrambled when going through the possibilities. Thanks.

And to the second comment, I'd probably disagree...Portugal thumped Hungary. They might just be playing well enough to give Poland and Nigeria a fight. Maybe. Hungary played very good against Nigeria, but collapsed against Portugal.

Anonymous said...

I prefer "Well-Endowed Gary"

Anonymous said...

hungary is starved for a win!!!

Anonymous said...

Sudan will win this tournament. There I said it ...

Anonymous said...

I have a feelings Poland don't want to finish first because they don't want to play Sudan

Anonymous said...

Germany should have beat Poland and will definitely beat Hungary & Nigeria..

Anonymous said...

If Portugal had played vs Germany like they played Hungary, this scenarios would all be very different. How come Germany only beat Hungary 2-0 ? Germany had a great game vs Poland and it was unfair that they lost, a tie would have been fair. Portugal had bad luck on some goals ( not scoring and letting in) and the score line vs Poland and Germany does not reflect the game. On the the other hand, like someone said, Portugal did thump Hungary 8-2 ! and if you were at the game, it could have been worse. Hungary vs Nigeria should have been a tie, as Germany had a chance at the end to score on a free kick and may have kicked itself high out of the group. This group is dependent on the game between Germany and Nigeria and Nigeria better show up against Portugal or they risk getting kicked out of the group with maybe Germany sneaking through.